Several on-chain metrics and charts are showing signals that could hint at the beginning of a new crypto bull market cycle, according to the co-founder of Delphi Digital.
On Aug. 14, institutional crypto research firm Delphi Digital’s Kevin Kelly said that crypto markets are cyclical and predictable which “has huge implications for the crypto market going forward.”
“Evidence is piling up that we’re in the early stages of a new cycle. Risk assets like stocks [and] crypto have been sniffing this out all year.”
Kelly also shared an Aug. 8-dated chart by Delphi Digital, highlighting that Bitcoin follows four-year cycles with distinct patterns that have reliably repeated for the past three cycles — with Bitcoin suffering an 80% drawdown in the first year, recovering to prior highs over two years, before rallying to a new all-time high in the fourth year.
The crypto market is highly cyclical.
Crypto market cycles are also remarkably consistent.
But their consistency isn’t just by coincidence.
If we’re right, this has huge implications for the crypto market going forward.
Time to air out some charts…
— Kevin Kelly (@Kevin_Kelly_II) August 14, 2023
Kelly noted that Bitcoin cycle peaks also typically coincide with the peaks in the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index — which tracks the health of the manufacturing and service sectors in the United States.
“BTC price peaks occur around the same time the ISM shows signs of topping out. Active addresses, total transaction volumes, total fees – they all peaked alongside tops in the ISM too.”
Kelly explained that when the business cycle starts to show recovery, so does the crypto market.
“Turning points in the business cycle have historically been ripe opportunities to increase risk exposure,” he said before adding, “It looks like the ISM is nearing the final stages of its two-year downtrend which again risk assets have been sniffing out.”
Related: Analysts tip 5 catalysts that could break Bitcoin, crypto from its stupor
Bitcoin and crypto markets have been lethargic for the past five months or so but analysts told Cointelegraph that several fundamental factors such as ETF approvals, an end of the rate hikes, and an Ethereum scaling upgrade could bring them out of hibernation.
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